Curlton,
well first of all, good that You read competitors threads.<G> In fact many would have cried foul if I posted Coherent praises on this thread.
So much for this one, I decided not to disrupt Your thread with such kind of background info further. Well You dig it out and brought it up, so I will respond.
First let me point out that I could really think about investing in Cymer as well, perhaps as soon as October. I didn't say I have NO financial interest at all. I just said I'm currently neither long nor short in CYMI. Well, that's a difference, isn't it ? My current interest is at COHR.
I could go even further. Let's assume that all those people "liking" CYMI here around or spreading bullish comments are long on the stock and all those "disliking" it now/further etc. are bearish on it. Why should You deem the first behaviour as "appropriate" and the second as "inappropriate" ? I would say, both modes of operation satisfy the goal of the poster, so let me conclude that everything should be deemed ok, whether You may like it or not, as long as the postings are not making false claims. As an analytic kind of guy, I like to come up with citations, so my claims could easily be verified. Everything else I normally mark explicitly as my opinion.
Also let me say I don't like shortselling in general, I would have sold calls or bought puts. I didn't due to other reasons. To me, CYMI share price is indifferent currently. However, if another DUV investment opportunity with reasonable valuations (!) may appear, I will follow my market timing approaches to enter. This could be Komatsu or Cymer as well. Just depends on the opportunity. Right now, valuations of CYMI are not what I consider as an opportunity. Just let me point out: PE at COHR=16. Well, that's a difference, too.
Let me start with the fact that I also read Sal' Habash's writeup on CYMI. I liked the DUV play. What I didn't like was valuation, so I was searching for alternatives. I found one, in COHR. In fact, Value Line Survey thinks of it as a hot growth opportunity next year. To me this is safer. I made my own judgement, You made Yours. I entered COHR at $46.38. So no gain but also no pain for me there. I really researched that stock, so I think I know what I'm talking about. All the info is publicly available, You just would have to glue those pieces together like I did.
My current opinion is that market demand is far too big to be filled just from one source (CYMI). So any order backlog for excimer laser could be an opportunity to gain market share for competitors. If COHR could get 20% market share next year, both companies will be very happy. Let me also tell You that I really think the CYMI/COHR situation is somewhat an INTC/AMD equivalent. However, COHR is 3-4 times the size of CYMI albeit more diversified.
Anyway, the facts could be obtained from various sources: Your thread, company homepages, General Lithography, the various stepper threads and many Laser publications on the net. You invested in a company with a proven track record but highest valuations. I invested in a high-growth company that may employ economies of scope in order to gain a foothold in this segment as well at much lower valuations. I feel more secure in this way. This is a legitimate motive, I would guess.. This time it spared me from a serious downdrift. Anyway, I could be willing to joing the next updrift...
still best wishes,
CROSSY |
