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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Stock Picking for Charity - 2006
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To: John McCarthy who wrote (68)1/2/2006 1:32:22 PM
From: Mike McFarland  Read Replies (1) of 592
 
By my count, eight people have five stocks
in their portfolios that are not shared with
anybody else. And four people have four
stocks that are not shared. Anybody remember
their statistics--are those folks more likely
to win?

I think first you have to make an assumption
that past winners
Message 22018049
and folks with decent gains in past contests may
indeed have some skill, so you adjust for that first,
but then I would say that the eight with five
independent stocks have a better chance.

But I defer to somebody with a statistics text
close at hand <g> Actually, in weather forecasting
the consensus forecast is often a good one--but not
the winning forecast. I think if you find consensus
among skillful forecasters, then you have something
good. Finding skillful forecasters is a trick too
however--even among meteorologists, ha.
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