Biotech Stock Picking for Charity - 2006 Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Stock Picking for Charity - 2006

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To: keokalani'nui who wrote (74)	1/2/2006 5:07:40 PM
From: Mike McFarland	Read Replies (1) of 592

I think this is why in recent years numerical simulations of the weather have moved to ensemble forecasts. Individual physics packages, perhaps differently resolved topography, or sea-air interface etc etc for each model--but as a group, the mean solution is the best solution more often than any individual forecast. The individual ensemble members each have their day in the sun-- but the mean solution is better over time. But I am not sure that it works for stocks. And maybe I cannot get over the fact that Rick has won twice. <g> You just know that there are quants in the backrooms at mutual funds grinding out an extra half a percent over this. Maybe they will buy the most often picked stock in this contest, heheh. Might be fun to track, and thanks to John counting them up, we know what that portfolio is: mogn telk cor kosn mygn acad alxn arna dsco mnta nktr I suppose it is too late to make that my entry! I think it is likely to do quite a bit better than the mean performance--but not be in the top three or so.

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