Zero, nada, nadir,nil, nix, zilch, zip, impossible for the next 50 years -- As much as the US and Japan, maybe a couple of others, would daydream about it and wish its happening.
That said, some small scale/separate/controllable social riot might happen. But I firmly believe China will overcome all the difficulties in the next 20 years (not next 10 years), which can be considered one of the most difficult periods in Chinese history, and moving forward, becoming one of the powerful nations in the world.
BTW, I remembered about 8 some years ago, there was a professor in Honolulu University did a similar research, on request and funded by CIA. And his conclusion was that it is very unlikely China would collapse into chaos and separated into numerous nations. But CIA did NOT like the conclusion of his research, so cut off the funding, and instructed the university to fire this (tenured) professor. The university did just that. But the Prof. went to court and won.
Looking at the Chinese history, a decent dynasty had lasted as long as 300-400 years. And that was under one ruler. The ability of governing and self examination of Chinese Communist Party is Far Better than any of those single rulers in Chinese history. And CCP is NOT one ruler, it is one governing body, composed of 10-15 smart people. Thus, it will last at least another couple of hundreds of years, as much as some Westerners do not like it<g>. |
