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Strategies & Market Trends : IPO and Other Stock Plays
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To: 2MAR$ who wrote (13205)1/2/2006 8:32:30 PM
From: yossarian67   of 13331
 
job, what's that:)......I expect we'll see roughly 15 a month in 2006. The one thing I always find odd about the mainstream press consumed with numbers is this: the best year in the 2000's to buy ipos in the aftermarket(by far) was the year with the fewest ipos: 2003. 2005 quality-wise was an overall shaky year for ipos. yes there were some very good ones and yes we saw the first signs of exuberance in the ipo market with bidu/bot/uarm and a few others but ---- too many debt laden offerings dumped on the market this year, way too many. Quality wise 2005 was far below '04/'03.

I'd expect similar quality wise in '06 if the number is 200, the fewer ipos that end up pricing the higher the overall quality will be. That's another of the little secrets, best time to buy these things for mid-term+ is when fewer of them are coming out and no one really wants them --- got to be careful when any/everything starts flying out the door. Ive no doubts I can make a real nice living trading ipos if only 50 come out in a year, as it will mean no one wants ipos and the stubborn good companies that do come will hit at nice discounts...which is exactly what happened in 2003. Heck even the back 1/2 of 2002 in a shaky market offered very compelling offerings --- just one for example DKS hit october 2002 at a split adjusted $6 or so. even in the depths of the worst markets in '00 - '02 there were plenty of ipos that worked, just had to be a bit patient.

tradingipos.com
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