Sepracor-Looks very promising Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising

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From: fred hayes	1/4/2006 11:23:15 AM
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rkrw/quid: I have both nbix and sepr. I agree that sepr is by far the safer buy at this point, and I'm not counting on an on-time launch for I. Mostly because of the DEA approval angle. But I'm still optimistic that nbix will do okay (and I hate to sell it now because of taxes). My analysis isn't very expert or scientifically based, but I'd like to throw a couple of other things into the pot. If I'm way off base, maybe someone will be kind enuf to point it out. First, I'm convinced the sleep market has barely been touched. The older drugs just didn't work and sleep problems are about the most common health issue I know of. I'm looking for maybe a 3-fold expansion of the market. Just my impression, can't begin to support it with facts. And I don't think price is that big of a deal if the $3 pill works better than the 10 cent pill. Second, nbix on its face (that's the best I can do with my knowledge base) looks to have a really good pipeline. Whole bunch of stuff in or entering P2. I'm hoping the pipline is worth a good chunk of the MC. And as already noted, the 30 percent of I goes directly south to nbix' bottom line. I just don't think $2 billion of MC (not counting a pile of cash) for nbix is stretching it very much. fred hayes

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