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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: russwinter who wrote (48723)1/4/2006 12:52:19 PM
From: Ramsey Su  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
The race is on.

Listened to a Leh conf call this morning. Someone at OCC (I did not catch her name) was presenting on the subject of mortgage guidelines released last month.

Very few questions but very good questions. Here are a couple:

1. a caller asked about how much teeth does the guidelines have? The presenter said guidelines are one notch below regulations. Since they are not regulations, the institutions would not be violating laws. They will be regulated via the supervisory powers of the various agencies.

2. a caller asked about the mortgage originators, such as the subprimer lenders who are not regulated. The presenter basically said they are on their own. The regulating agencies have no jurisdictions over them whatsoever.

The more I think about it, the more I dislike this scenario.

These guidelines in essence is removing a bunch of competition in the subprime world. Big boys like Wamu (Long Beach Savings) are regulated. Their presence in the subprime world is going to be curtailed by these guidelines.

Now the race is on. If the subprimers can grab more market share and defaults do not go up for a few more months, they could be in great shape. Loan originations may go up along with a higher WAC.
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