The Good
Well, the usual reiterations came out last night with MS coming out the night before. We will see if that catches the stock. Also, now the analysts are focusing on what an early Q2 launch for indiplon means - one cycle approval with no problems with DEA (which I think I recall PFE had (problems that is) with its last DEA-involved launch). Also, one analyst noted that Sutent and Exubera will carry higher GMs to PFE and will be more important. I think I have repeated myself on this front: the fast approval of Rozerem and the quick 2 cycle approval of Ambien CR along with PFE name have gotten too much expected on timing. PFE has botched most things FDA-related recently, this tablet/capsule high dose/low dose two application thingie cannot work for quick approval in my mind.
Reiterations coming from Merrill with caveat that they are reducing share estimates in a faster growing market and will need to re-evaluate absolute sales levels if current trends continue. SSB makes it the top Specialty Pharma pick currently. Goldman reiterates and MS did the same earlier this week.
The BAD
Lunesta scrips have been very weak lately. See levels below. 12/23 was a seasonally large week for some other drugs. Share drops continue. I do still have $137 MM as my best guess revenue level for Q4 on L. I have done no Xopenex work recently. Refill trends do continue very strong for L.
Week Total New Refills
9/2/2005 95,201 66,266 28,935
9/9/2005 87,045 58,816 28,229
9/16/2005 102,818 72,882 29,936
9/23/2005 103,628 71,784 31,844
9/30/2005 102,027 69,603 32,424
10/7/2005 107,504 72,278 35,226
10/14/2005 108,880 73,629 35,251
10/21/2005 113,014 75,395 37,619
10/28/2005 112,525 74,953 37,572
11/4/2005 114,806 74,486 40,320
11/11/2005 113,001 73,040 39,961
11/18/2005 113,467 72,076 41,391
11/25/2005 93,153 54,836 38,317
12/2/2005 121,994 74,480 47,514
12/9/2005 110,224 67,341 42,883
12/16/2005 113,021 68,255 44,766
12/23/2005 112,467 66,553 45,914
Jon
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