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Politics : American Presidential Politics and foreign affairs
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To: Lazarus_Long who wrote (2897)1/5/2006 4:58:07 AM
From: Peter Dierks  Read Replies (1) of 71588
 
"demographics seems to be conspiring to give China an advantage."
Which means? If you mean the country with the largest population is economically and militarily dominant, China should have run this planet for decades.

Demographics give the country with the largest proportion of middle aged adults the advantage. When the population is too young you end up with stagflation like the Us experienced in the '70s. When it is too old you get a depression like the '30s.

"China will have a much harder time invading its neighbors than big military powers have in the past."
Talk to Vietnam, India, and Korea about that.

They can exert influence without invading.

"Taiwan might need to be more concerned then they currently are about being invaded."
I thought you just said China wouldn't be bothering its neighbors.

Taiwan is the only "hostile" neighboring country except Japan. Japan has too many international ties. China has been fairly successful in keeping Taiwan diplomatically isolated.

In the 1950's, the rate of increase of the USSR's GDP was faster than that of the US. Eventually they hit a snag: central planning only works up to a point, then it becomes a hindrance, a drag, and requires too much prediction of the unknown and unknowable. It comes unglued. If your population is a geographic hodgepodge of nationalities (as was true of the USSR and is true of China), it comes unglued. Sometimes violently.

We will see if this happens to China. USSR's demographics were not as favorable in the 70's as they are in China now.
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