One key step needs to be the creation of a nationalist party that TRULY represents Iraqi nationalism
That was our hope, but this last election should have made it clear that it is mostly fantasy. Iraq is going to end up with partisan Islamic rule, at least as long as democratic elections are held. If it reverts to nondemocratic rule, it might become secular again, assuming we can help select the Iraqi Tito.
The Kurds are indeed in the King-Maker seat, but even then, a very large fraction of Kurds/Sunnis would need to form a cooperative block to prevent Shia domination. I can't see such a marriage of convenience lasting long without significant fractures, especially given the very real, IMO, possibility that the Kurds form a free state of there own, with sufficient oil wealth to not care about the rest of Iraq. There is very little in it for them to stick around, other than the current mantra, which many including you chant, that they can't be allowed a free state. They will get one eventually, and IMO, well deserve one.
The battle is going to be Shia/Sunni, and given the population demographics and Iranian backing, the winners are pretty clear.
We flushed secular Iraqis, women, and Sunnis down the toilet. Thats the net near to midterm results of this adventure. The long term results will be increased Shia power in the ME, with whatever that means. |
