I love AAPL and SNDK, and hold positions in both. On the MP3 front, they do compete, but on vastly different points. There's plenty of room for 3 or 4 players in the area. Right now, Apple holds a commanding 2/3 market share, so the rest will battle on for the remaining minor share. In some ways, it's Apple's share to lose.
Sansa isn't positioned to battle against iPod nano. If/when the 1GB nano comes out at $99, that's going to make things tough, but Sansa still has the $20-50 market, which I doubt is going to be something Apple will try to approach. Apple's current entry in the low end is the shuffle, which isn't as commanding as the nano. At that price range and size, there are limitations on how much you can design. Also, Apple isn't all that excited about releasing the 1GB nano at such a low price as that will cannibalize their shuffle sales as well as their higher capacity units. They'll have to do their calculation on profit margins on the 1GB nano to decide if it's worth merging the two lines at that point. In some ways, a low priced 1GB nano will probably kill the shuffle. Priced too high and it will not be competitive with the higher capacity units. A just right point may not exist at this time, but let's see what they have to say at CES. More in Apple's way is to increase the capacity, so I'd be looking out for a 6GB or 8GB unit at the current 4GB price, and moving the 2GB unit down in price. I think there's still about a year or two left for the shuffle before it gets squeezed out. |
