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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: neolib who wrote (179306)1/6/2006 12:09:31 PM
From: Hawkmoon  Read Replies (2) of 281500
 
The Minister of Defense in Iraq is a Sunni.

And there has been an outreach program in place by both the US and some elements of the Iraqi government to bring various Sunni leaders into the government.

Of course, there are other elements who, as you correctly point out, have other agendas.

But look Neo.. No doubt there is a Badr Corps/SCIRI influence in the current government which is perceived to represent Iranian interests.

But there are also Iraqi nationalist influences represented amongst the Shi'a, particularly amongst Sistani's group, and even MAS (Muqtada Al Sadr), who seem to advocate an "Iraq for Iraqis" approach.

Lots of diverse power centers in Iraq, all very delicately balanced, each pushing the envelope to increase their own power. I think we can agree on this.

But if SCIRI/Badr Corps is as all-powerful as you make them out to be, then one has to ask why they haven't already seized control over Iraq and commenced a progrom against Sunnis?

There's only one obvious reason.. The US presence.

So as long as we maintain our role as honest broker only interested in seeing a democratic society emerge from Iraq, then we may avoid an outright civil war erupting.

But the minute we leave, we'll guarantee that all sides will launch into a bloody civil war that will result in far more Iraqis deaths than have resulted in the past 3 years.

That's the reality that I perceive. Our leaving Iraq right now would be tantamount to a boxing referee jumping out of the ring. The gloves would quickly come off...

Hawk
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