SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : US Economic Trend Analysis
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
From: gpowell1/6/2006 12:47:29 PM
Read Replies (1) of 97
 
Read an interesting discussion about whether house price appreciation has fueled consumption.

Located about here: Message 22026402 and Message 22027297

A general theme of the linked thread is that Greenspan’s supposed monetary pumping has lead to rampant speculation, asset bubble formation, lower interest rates, and massive consumer spending. The latter being the only thing propping up a tottering economy ripe for depression, or stagflation.

Is this theme correct? Earlier in this thread we have shown that banking reserves have remained relatively constant since 1986 (Greenspan era). In fact, since 1990 the US economy has experienced a period of sustained disinflation as the inflation rate has dropped to 3% (or less depending upon the amount of upward bias in CPI). While, there is no doubt that the Federal Reserve has an inflation bias and this will lead to economic fluctuations and distributional effects of one sort or another, it appears most of the participants on the linked thread believe that a massive washout event is just off the horizon.

Can we find support for these dire predictions? Let’s look at household balance sheets since 1952: federalreserve.gov

Btabs.zip contains a table that shows the composition of household assets and liabilities and with it we can investigate the economic health of the typical household.
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News