E_K_S. Thanks for the update. I'll comment on all the stocks you mentioned...so a long post -g-
I generally review the Burkenroad reports a couple/three times per year looking for ideas. I find mostly that the "underfollowed" companies they write-up have previously been discussed here or the stocks aren't a fit for me because they seem too expensive for me or I don't understand the rationale the authors make.
Occasionally I spot something. I bought GIFI which I found there.
burkenroad.org
I have an order in to add to my few shares tomorrow. I find GIFI to be very expensive, perhaps not even a value stock. OTOH, relative to other companies I'm looking at in the sector in which I rightly or wrongly place GIFI, GIFI is relatively undervalued (I am guessing). Of course, investing by relative value is very dangerous. But the sector is hot, and I will make a speculative add.
I was wrong to pass on TMI. It's still expensive, but has strong operating earnings. I'll relook.
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My idea about investing in oil/gassers/e&p/etc. has been to start with very small positions in several (many, actually -g-) and let the market tell me which are the good ones. My presumption is the good stocks will be bid up in price and the poor will languish and be left behind. My underlying assumption is that the market is a better determinant of value than I am as regards this complicated area. At this time (2003-2005) - unlike in almost every other sector I'm involved with - I have assumed the "better" stocks (i.e. the stocks bid up in price) are the "better" buys and so I have ADDED to positions of stocks that have been bid up, and have sold or held stocks that have not performed.
As regards PQ and EPL, I hold shares of both. But because these stocks have not performed well - relatively, (and because EPL's been hurt by Katrina), I've been only holding PQ and selling some EPL - based on my strategy in the previous paragraph. Of course, a value player could certainly argue that the price/value has improved for the companies because their stock prices are relatively low, and that the companies are real takeover candidates. It's certainly possible.
I've sold a little SGR that was bought in 2002. SGR keeps getting contracts for rebuilding in the Gulf: "Shaw Group said Friday first-quarter profit tripled from a year ago, lifted by hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue from cleanup and reconstruction contracts in the wake of two devastating hurricanes." Positive stuff about SGR now too as regards coal/nuclear plant capabilities and possibilities. I don't know if all this is already priced into the stock. I don't believe I'll add more shares, but I won't sell anymore now either.
Local bank stocks in Gulf look fairly valued to me. I suspect the bigger regionals and nationals will have more capabilities and opportunities to expand and improve their competitive position in the area than the small guys. |
