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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: kris b who wrote (49150)1/9/2006 1:12:54 AM
From: GST  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
If the US was 60% of Chinese GDP you would be right -- but it is not 60% of Chinese GDP. China can grow without growth in the US market. China will not lose 60% of its growth rate if the US market stagnates. China is likely to see more moderate growth in the future -- with 1.3 billion people you need to be a bit crazy to engage in double digit national growth year after year.

As for Chinese property, it has indeed been red hot and it will take a few years of ups and downs to smooth itself out. This has been a major policy goal of China for the past two years and they have really had to use strong measures to halt soaring prices in places like Shanghai. Try this on for size -- more high rise space will be completed this year in Shanhai alone than exists in Manhattan. But all of this is a rounding error at the national level. The fact remains, China is growing and will grow with or without our growth.
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