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Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising
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To: rkrw who wrote (9157)1/9/2006 3:15:09 PM
From: fred hayes  Read Replies (1) of 10280
 
rkrw: No fair. It's a battle of wits where one of the combatants is unarmed (:>).

Jim, was just trying to outline in broad stokes why I think NBIX share price may not be too far out of line. I'm not pushing nbix, and can't argue the world need another gaba. But I feel like the sleep market is going to multiply because sleep problems are so common and the old drugs don't work very well. Maybe I overestimate how much better I and L are vs the old drugs (I'm including Ambien in the "old" category). I would take your judgement over mine anyday on that, but I do feel that the potential number of people who would pay for a sleep drug that works will surprise almost everyone (but me (:>)).

Agree that people won't pay the premium price for I (or L) after ambien is generic if they try A and if it works fine for them. Don't think we need them to still sell lots of I (or L).

I'm optimistic that pfe can push indiplon to 2B in sales, but I'm a lot more cautious after reading your views. Your pointing out all the other sleep pills under development also gives pause, especially somaxon. I think pfe's I sales will depend on just how well it works and how reluctant people are to make a switch once they start on I if these new enties aren't another clear improvement. Lots of moving parts here, but there are plenty of people who just don't give a hoot about paying $3 for a pill. They pay as much for a cup of coffee and I doun't think they're going to spend alot of time trying to do cost/benefit analysis.

I like your point about pfe's possible buying nbix. That had crossed my mind. I sure wouldn't mind.
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