The following chronicles my attempt to decipher today's (01/10/2006) move in JDSU. The stock is up 9.65% on no news. Volume is above average but not particularly high for this stock. The price - and the volume - started moving up at about 12:10 - 12:15 pm. EST. Apparently Jim Cramer gave yet another positive valuation of this stock (on Monday, 12/09/2006?).
Yahoo!
First stop, Yahoo! Finance, with my portfolio, is my home page. No news today. The volume of cheer leading and bashing messages on the Yahoo! message boards drowns out any content that may be there. I was quickly reminded why I seldom check those boards.
Google
I googled (the word should be lowercase now that google is in the dictionary as a verb) "JDSU". No group postings at all - in English, that is; there is one in German.
One news story today, actually a press release, from Market Pulse announcing four "AM Stock Picks" for today, one of which is JDSU. No details or reasons specific to JDSU except "These notable stocks should be watched because they look great from a fundamental and technical perspective."
Quicken.com
Every Hyperlink jumps to Yahoo!. Enough said.
MSN Money
Stock Rating: Details:
c01.moneycentral.msn.com
StockScouter has a 6 (out of 10) rating on this stock.
Fundamental Grade D: Negative - Three reasons, all negative.
Ownership Grade C: Positive - "Shares are under heavy accumulation by financial institutions." It sounds good but I distrust the metric because I don't know how it is determined.
Valuation Grade B: Very Positive - "The price-to-sales multiple is significantly higher than the average for all stocks in the StockScouter universe." It sounded good until I googled price-to-sales multiple. That led me to the Motley Fool, where I found the following article on the metric:
fool.com
More voodoo? I don't know. Don't get me wrong, some metrics help the investor get a plausible value of the company. One I like is the forward looking PE ratio (not the PE).
Technical Grade B: Positive - "Previous day's closing price for JDSU was slightly above its 50-day moving average." I'm not sure, but I think charting is voodoo. Rather, it is a placebo: the more you believe, the better it works.
Upshot: Objectively neutral, or positive bias based on my own biases.
Raging Bull
ragingbull.lycos.com
Cheer leading (two words according to OpenOffice).
Silicon Investor
Tom Caruthers and TT are the only members keeping this thread alive.
Full disclosure
JDSU represents 61% of my holdings, not so much because I don't know better than to put over half my holdings in one stock, but more because of its move up from $1.49 last April. I am not looking for an opportunity to sell this stock. I began buying it as a long term (up to 5 years) investment in March of 2003 at $2.82. Since that first purchase I have bought the stock nine more times. Most of those purchases were above $3.00. My average price is $2.82. Today's close is $2.84. I am finally in the black (actually green on ETrade). |
