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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: TimbaBear who wrote (49522)1/12/2006 2:08:15 AM
From: John Vosilla  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
Too many signs point to stagflation being the end game. Skyrocketing energy and costs of RE and infrastructure are just starting to really pass through to businesses and consumers. Last time out 15 years ago we literally had our financial system on the brink of insolvency at the same time the second largest economy Japan nosedived into their depression and commercial RE nationwide plunged an average of 60-70% and even then we still had no deflation. Today our financial system is very strong as is corporate balance sheets which certainly was not the case in the early 90's. We have the excess land and ability to grow via financing and immigration policies that Japan never had. Too much emphasis is placed on the coastal housing bubble and tapped out US consumer at the lower end as being the holy grails for connecting the dots.. Debasing from our monster twin deficits should concern folks more who think cash is going to be king. I only wish it was that easy but I know day in a day out my dollars continue to buy much less than our government tells me it does.. Maybe the stock market is telling us something these days so in the whole scheme of things what happens to California home prices or 27 year olds up to their eyeballs in mortgage and credit card debt is a minor issue and best to look for the next big idea..
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