[A Wrinkle in Time, indeed]
<<<"As the world leader in digital signal processing solutions, it is vital to Texas Instruments that the best minds in the industry are pushing the envelope on DSP applications," said Tom Engibous, president and CEO of Texas Instruments in his keynote speech today at DSP World in San Diego. "We want to engage with the most innovative people and companies, and we are willing to put the money behind this effort.">>>
Hmmmm. . . they published his words before he said them. Now, I know you can get a transcript before a speech is given, but usually the news doesn't hit the streets until afterwards.
As for the Venture fund, I don't know if it will affect Amati at all. I suppose it's possible. Or maybe it's not. I just don't know.
Tom Engibous, TI's CEO, began his presentation by saying, "Seeing so many of you today, willing to be here at 5:15 on a summer evening in San Diego, proves once again DSP isn't a technology; it's a religion."
Laughter throughout the room. Ah, yes, we've been accused of that, I thought.
Okay, just a few highlights:
* DSP market will be $3.1 billion by end of '97, $12 billion by 2001, and $50 billion by 2007.
* 30,000 DSP programmers today
* 300 third party DSP companies
* 900 universities doing DSP research
* 1 billion lines of DSP code written
* rate of growth parallels the Micro-processor
* TI should see 40% CAGR for next ten years
* TI will spend more on R&D this year than most competitors's revenues
* C6X is 10X more powerful than other DSPs.
After his presentation, I went up and listened while several asked questions and eventually introduced myself and said I was an investor with a strong interest in ADSL technology. I asked about the market: "Huge. . . . this is the telcos's best solution. . . they'll be forced to deploy. . . it's a matter of survival [bottlenecks, competition, etc.]"
Me: What about timing? 1998???
TE: For a company like TI, '98 revenues probably won't be significant. For a company like Amati, it's different --- they could be significant.
Me: Beyond '98?
TE: Ubiquitious. Eventually it [ADSL] will be as common as having touch-tone. The numbers have to be there. That's the key.
[His assistant said the goal was 150/20 --- $150 installation and $20 a month for service. That would enable mass deployment.]
Me: And before that?
TE: Many niche markets. [Several possibilities mentioned: early adopters, enterprise networks, foreign telcos, select US markets. . .]
Me: Will the C6X be out on time? [Referring to the ADSL version.]
TE: Yes, I believe it's on schedule.
Me: I'm concerned because I know Amati's depending on it. . .
TE: I know Amati well. We work closely with them.
He said something about TI having a big focus on ADSL and then someone interrupted and I ended up talking to three of their top engineers, one of whom was the guy who'd answered questions I'd written to the company at least six months ago. One of them knew Cioffi and said his buddy had even attended Cioffi's wedding, so you know the relationship goes back a ways. They all concurred the price points have to be met if the technology is to be mass deployed. They see the niche markets emerging first and as the prices come down, the market will spread. They also see deployment of ADSL as inevitable. "It's not if, it's when." The technology is deployable right now. It's the servicing and provisioning and pricing that has to be fine-tuned.
I came away feeling elated there's so much support for the technology and feeling, as I have for some time now, that patience is the key. Not one person said it wouldn't be deployed or hinted it was still in the trial stages. They were of one mind in saying deployment is inevitable.
Engibous hinted the RBOCs would be forced to deploy because there was no other solution for the bandwidth bottlenecks that could be deployed as easily and as economically. Once it begins, the tide will turn and they'll be forced to offer it simply to stay alive.
I'm glad I went. Glad Mr. Engibous is involved in ADSL enough to know Amati and to be excited about the technology. I've received this same reaction at other times, but I have to admit it's especially gratifying to witness it first hand from the very top.
And let me tell you, TI is one class act. From the CEO right down to the sales persons working the floor.
Their ability to choose partners isn't too shabby, either.
More as I remember it.
Moneypenny
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