Certainly agree that Sadr has no love for Persians, and in this, he likely finds a suitable alliance with Sistani, who also seems to wish to preserve the independence he currently possesses as a Grand Ayatollah and leading religious figure in charge of the Shi'a holy sites.
But I'm not sure if I concur with MAS possessing full support of the old guard in Iran. It would seem to me that the IRGC and Ahmadinajad are backing SCIRI and the Badr Corps instead, and MAS found his sources of major support from Iran drying up after his humiliation in Najaf.
But Iran's power base is factionalized, from what I am able to discern. Ahmadinijad has replaced many governmental officials with IRGC and other hardline leadership, most not very competent, but very loyal. Thus, I'm still unclear of what power centers within Iran are supporting which factions within Iraq and how does this translate into the internal struggle for dominance within Iran (as well as Iraq).
Btw, I believe the Arabist racism that both MAS and AMZ share lends them to cooperate a bit more than is actually acknowledged. I think MAS, definitely does not like AMZ, but he sees the benefit of AMZ assisting him in limiting Iran's influence within Iraq. Obviously he sees AMZ as an opponent he would later need to deal with, but for now, the greater threat is Iranian domination of the country.
What do you think?
Also, do you have any opinions about Ba'th party (FRE) and AQIZ cooperation/alliance?
Hawk |
