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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: Ramsey Su who wrote (49708)1/13/2006 2:32:38 PM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
This is from Citicorp's report on lenders, that Ild may have sent you?

Blended calculation of FNM, FRE, MBAA data estimates 4th quarter mortgage originations decreased 18%, qt over qt. Refis fell 35-45%, so purchases kept it in the ball park. They have a section on "refinanceable mortgage debt outstanding", that estimates only 10% of the total universe would benefit from a refi into a 30 year fixed. 16% would benefit into a 5/1 ARM, so the pass is largely cut off, at current rates. If rates dropped 25 bp this would kick up to 13%, and 25% respectively, so rates do still matter. 25 bp higher, it's all gone, 5% and 11%, so we are pretty much at "cry uncle" time.
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