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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: ild who wrote (49731)1/13/2006 8:47:47 PM
From: chainik  Read Replies (2) of 110194
 
Oil, curve, tightening etc are important for investors. I am talking about trading on a time scale of weeks/months, and IMO it's too early to buy puts/short and forget. The trend from Oct 2005 is still up, and I see little evidence that the big guys are positioned for a major fall.

Re COT - it's more or less neutral IMO. You are right, S&P and NDX look bearish, but when one takes into account minis, I would say it's in the midrange. The last change in the position of commercials on SP and NDX (about $6 Bil longer despite a big jump in Jan) is bullish.

I am not talking APPL puts, but personally I feel OK with modest long positions in smth like IWM or FVL.

BTW, would you like a bet: Hussman will go long (very modestly initially, but long) within a month. A bottle of Georgian wine (g)?
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