I think if you would expect a great mighty final wave, with bubbles, euphoria and all the bells and whistles - in that case, there would be an important difference, thinking in terms of 2-3 years. But - if what's at issue are a bunch of weak and/or failed waves, then in the end it all adds anyway up to a process of rolling over - sector by sector.
We have too many indexes and measures... in the old days there was the DOW, and that was it. Speaking of the DOW, a new high would be either the fifth wave (bearish scenario) -- or, it would have to be the top of a "B" of a large running correction off the 2000 top (bullish, after another hard "C" bear market, maybe to new lows).
The world at large has many unresolved - and in fact worsening issues -- from energy and environment (and war), and to overcapacity and overabundance of... shall we say, human resources and human talent. Hundreds of millions of people all over the world are coming out to compete with the established prosperous nations. Few seem to talk about this, and just about no one has any serious real idea where all this "globalization" leads -- habitual romantic notions about infinite human ability to solve problems... notwithstanding. |
