Tracy:
For me to know, first of all, how have you been burned
by listening to hype in this forum? I think if you scrutinize
a stock, look at its balance sheet (TLTK's total assets went
from $4.94 million on 6/30/95 to $6.93 million on 9/30/95 which
is not bad...it's cash also went from $357K to $835K in the same
period), read posts in this section...about 95 on TLTK, call the
company at 702.734.0177 and ask for a press kit, know that
the telephone market isn't shrinking (esp. international which
concentrates on more than domestic...that's where a lot of growth is),
.....
Compare market values (presently about $24 million compared to other
companies that are wonderful such as ASND which has a market
cap of $5.4 BILLION)...that's 225 Times more..., Realize that
the company has gone from $1.4 million in Rev's 3 quarters ago to
over $5 million in JUST ONE MONTH (that's more than 10X Rev growth
in only 3 quarters...THEY ARE GROWING). Net Income is kicking in,
would have been higher last quarter and the present one except
they have to pay $1.1 million or so in legal costs. Those that
look into the numbers know that Q IV Fiscal 96 (april thru june)
will see a high pump of of earnings (if trends continue which they
should esp. since a 2nd switch is going to be in use in a few weeks)
because they won't heve to pay $550,000 anymore in legal costs.
David on this newsgroup knows much more than I. All i do is get the
information like anyone else can out there and analyze the numbers
and future potential with a company.
Another company that has a lot of posts is Ascend communications...
All of my stock money is in them and TLTK....If i find something
else better that gives a high rate of return with a low rate of risk...
I'll alert all. So far though this stock seems to be headed for around
$15-$20 by the end of the year. LOT's of upside, not much downside.
Another thing that i mention AS JUST ONE OF MANY TOOLS TO ANALYZE
the priciness of a stock is the PE RATIO. For some strange reason
noone on Silicon Investor (or hardly any) ever talk about it.
Nonetheless, it is something to look for. With TLTK's presently
hovering at 22, this should ROUGHLY be interpreted that the stock
will grow around 22% a year. However, they are growing MUCH faster
than that. Who know's when they will slow down, yet count on
the PE ratio to keep rising. That just means that if the NI increases
at a rate of 100% a year, the PE ratio should approach that eventually.
For us that means a present price of $13 instead of $2.90. Probably
won't do this and there are many other factors influencing a stock price,
yet the PE ratios are in line for compaies such as ASND and CSCC, so
i rest my case with them.
By the way one of those factors is TLTK's past which has a few blemishes.
They have taken management steps which are outlines in the Annual report
to answer this.
Gone on a Harangue yet i think this whole stock market thing is so cool.
Actually, at the first (about Nov. 95) i lost 25% because i put money
into things like SPYG, UUNT, and CSCC and didn't look at the fundamentals.
CSCC had a good last quarter so if i kept it, it would have been fine,
yet with SPYG and UUNT there's no way knowing what i know now that
i would have put my money in them....NO WAY. I like numbers and that
seems to work well for me. The reason they have dropped from their lofty
levels is becaseu in the end it all comes down to a consistent earnings
stream...i had no idea. But ya know, glad i lost that or else wouldn't
have ever known about investing. |
