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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (49765)1/16/2006 3:32:56 PM
From: chainik  Read Replies (2) of 110194
 
It's interesting how Saville's views on housing market have been changing. He was bearish for the last few years (although IMO he wasn't really paying a lot of attention to housing). Then a few month ago he mentioned that housing is unlikely to go down significantly in dollar terms (basically his argument was "why pieces of paper should outperform tangible stuff like copper or silver or land/housing?") - and at that time he sounded very uncertain.

Now he just states that housing is in a long-term bull market which is likely to continue for at least 4-5 more years. He is also long PCL (timber); correlation between PCL and homebuliders is not very strong, but still PCL is very likely to go down if housing collapses.
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