Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: mishedlo who wrote (44614)	1/17/2006 12:53:54 AM
From: TimbaBear	Read Replies (3) of 116555

Mish You are a bright and passionate person. You have a lot of good going for you. But when you say shit like this: I failed to add the other thing you do not get. You piss off a lot of folks who otherwise admire a lot of what you do. This is not the TMF PA thread, it is mostly a serious discussion about the various ways to look at the markets. To attack another serious poster, whether you feel it was justified or not does you no credit whatsoever. You are as guilty as anyone of making wild leaps of faith in your position. You are blind to those, but that does not mean they do not exist. For example: Much of the whole FN world is as Fd as we are and too that I will add that IF perchance you are correct and interest rates here go to the moon we are talking a worldwide depression.* Are we? Who is China's second largest consumer, their third? How about Japan? Who are they importing from and exporting to other than the US? How about India? Who are their 2nd and 3rd largest trading partners? Sure the world will hurt when the ravenous consumption of the US gets somewhat curtailed by what's coming. But the US won't completely shut off, we will still import 70% of our energy needs, we will still import the lion's share of whatever consumables we'll still need because we don't make them here anymore. But if you think the rest of the world will hurt as bad as we will, I think you better bring your world trading awareness up to the present time. What is happening is that the US is being isolated like a diseased child. Russia and China and the ASEAN countries have entered into mutual defense pacts. China has entered into oil supply agreements with most of the big producers. The Saudis have removed their money from US investments. China and Japan have virtually stopped buying US debt. We are being marginalized because the rest of the world can see what's coming and they don't want to go down with us. This is precisely why GST, myself, and others here are so certain that the US currency outlook changes your Mises school outcome. There is no doubt that deflation is the normal outcome of a credit blow-up. But what is the normal outcome when that credit blow-up is triggered by a currency collapse? You want to believe that the rest of the world is a f'up as we are and that just isn't so. The UK saw the housing bubble and took steps to stop it, they are now on the mend. Japan is coming out of their funk but they will have to pay a price for buying so much US debt and they will probably be hurt more than any other country when we collapse. But they have a nation of savers and they will recover much more quickly because of it. Germany is beginning to adjust to the huge pill they had to swallow in the reunification and may be the most underrated of all the big economies. The USD is on its way to being toast. When the ruble collapsed, Russia didn't have deflation. When any other currency collapsed it wasn't deflationary. You may ignore the weakness of the dollar or assign it a different priority, but to berate and denigrate a regular poster here does you no credit. You put in a lot of time and cover an amazing amount of ground. Perhaps you need to step back and take a breather? You can't be all things to all people. Timba

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next