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Politics : Foreign Policy Discussion Thread

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To: Hawkmoon who wrote (7202)1/17/2006 3:43:39 PM
From: Peter Dierks  Read Replies (1) of 15987
 
"My personal gut feeling is that he's dead, or extremely incapacited.

Which is why I believe we haven't seen him for nearly a year, but WE HAVE SEEN Zawahiri over and over again."

I tend to agree. He could subsist in the mountains for a long time. This does put a strain on the organization in terms of bringing in medical care, drugs and medical euipment. It limits his mobility while increasing the importance of his mobility.

It is possible that we know where he is and conscientiously decided to leet them waste energy and money on keeping him alive.

"We have people who are doing nothing but looking for AQ Senior Leadership, as well as Zarqawi.. "

You are probably right about that. Possible and likely are very different.

"Thus, it strikes that they were pretty certain Zawahiri was somewhere in the vicinity of those houses, or they would not have hit them."

One of the keys to remaining alive when the people with power want you dead is to remain unpredictable. Right before the liberation of Iraq we bombed the restaurant he was thought to be eating. If memory serves me, the explosive device exploded an area a little larger than the dining room; like a whole city block. Hunted leaders start using disinformation to triangulate who is leaking.

"the loss of civilian life is regrettable. But that lends further evidence that they had solid information that he was there because there's an extensive legal review involved in hitting targets that may involve civilian casualties."

Agreed. We morn the collateral damage. The chance that there were innocent casualties seems remote.

I also believe that the review process must have gone pretty high. Do you think President Bush authorized the strike?
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