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Biotech / Medical : GSII - GENERAL SURGICAL INNOVATIONS, INC.

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To: Cody Goebel who wrote (63)9/17/1997 10:06:00 AM
From: Lighthouse   of 211
 
Exit strategy comes in two positive flavors and one negative spin IMO:

The acquisition:

1) Wait for Johnson & Johnson's stent franchise to come under serious attack (six months from now) and watch them scramble for acquisitions to replace those revenues\profits. {About the average mezzaniners life span!)

The lawsuit warrant:

2) Await the positive outcome of next Spring's lawsuit with Guidant. The method of use patents hold up and GSI gets an injuction a/g GDT or at least a healthy royalty figure. Oh yeah and GSI is seeking damages so you get a little extra kick. {Mezzaniners win again!}

Negative spin:

1) Next Spring: Company's method of use patents are scaled back due to GDT's prior art claim or arbitration forces an unusually low royalty rate on GDT's balloon sales. Company goes it alone and gradually burns cash in the marketplace. Pull the rip cord any time after this and the ground hits you pretty hard.

All that being said:

I like the technique and think GSI has the best risk/reward to play it. And after loading the boat (no make that the ocean liner) at $3.50-$3.75 I am content to wait.

Sorry for the long epistle.

What's your read on the future.

Regards

Lighthouse
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