Japan grows a beard
Societies don't die when they increase their longevity and decrease their birthrate. They don't die when their populations decline rather than increase. They change. And from some perspectives (although not necessarily the economic one) this change is desirable, the result of increasing health and wealth. In fact, this sort of change (controlled decline rather than mindless growth) might be the very condition of a society's sustainability -- and the world's.
2006 is a significant year for Japan. Demographers agree that sometime this year the Japanese population will stop increasing and start decreasing -- from today's 127 million to about half that figure by 2100, according to the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. But when it comes to the interpretation of this scenario, there's less consensus.
The Japan Times recently reported the projections of Iwao Fujimasa, a demographer with the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies. According to the Times, Fujimasa "believes that while depopulation could depress the real estate market and affect the financial standing of banks dependent on real estate prices, as well as rattle the pension system, it will probably have a big plus side. He pointed to possible trends such as boosting gender equality, breaking down generation gaps and ultimately allowing for a more relaxed way of living. Land prices will fall, people will be able to afford bigger homes, and the daily crush on trains will be lessened."
There are two reactions to population decline: a hard-nosed economic one and a softer, more philosophical attitude focused on quality of life. If we must use the national-individual metaphor, let's say that Japan may just be hitting a sort of collective midlife crisis. And the best kind of midlife crisis makes you ask questions like: "Is that all there is?" and "What really matters to me?"
In response to the increasing average national age, money-minded people push for privatization, pension reform, greater per-worker efficiency, less protection, greater ambition. (Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi is of this school. Whether he'll call for immigration reform is another matter; some say Japan's amazing new caring, sharing domestic robots have a less-publicized function: to forestall the need to bring Filipina maids and nurses into Japan.) In this view, changing demographics mean that life must get harder, more ruthless, more efficient.
wired.com |
