"The proof is all over the place, from Enron to the present."
Just as I expected. An appeal to popularity argument, spiced up with a reference to the evil Enron Corporation.
Perfectly predictable.
"Bushies lied that prices would go down if we went to war."
I'd challenge you to prove Bush ever said that, but it doesn't matter.
Searches via google, yahoo, msn, dogpile, and jeeves failed to produce any corroboration of his statement. There are allegations of such by biased sources such as commondreams and Bob Woodward, but no reliable or unbiased evidence.
MSNBC: The White House Monday declined to comment on a report in a new book by journalist Bob Woodward that a Saudi Arabian ambassador had promised the Bush administration that it would lower oil prices to help boost the U.S. economy in time for the November presidential election.
And oil traders shrugged off the report Monday, sending crude prices through the $38 a barrel mark on the New York Mercantile Exchange on fears over increased violence in the Middle East. Prices later settled back.
“The market’s not really reacting to (the report),” said Phil Flynn, an energy analyst at Alaron Trading in Chicago.
MSNBC
msnbc.msn.com
There is this:
January 12 The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), meeting in Vienna, agrees to raise the aggregate production quota of its members (excluding Iraq) to 24.5 million barrels per day, up from the current 23 million barrels per day, effective February 1. Each member will receive a proportionately higher share of the quota, about a 6.5% increase. (NYT)
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February 21 OPEC Secretary-General Alvaro Silva announces that OPEC will assure that a supply shortage does not occur should hostilities in Iraq prevent Iraq from continuing its oil exports. According to Silva, "The Organization has been dealing with the problem of Iraq for the last 10 years, attending to Iraq's market when it was restricted under the oil-for-food deal. This Iraq situation has been handled before and if it were to happen again the Organization would be able to handle it." (Reuters)
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March 5 International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Claude Mandil and Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi meet in Riyadh. Mandil receives a commitment from OPEC to meet "any further loss of supplies to oil markets in a swift and timely manner." Furthermore, according to the Saudi Press Agency, "In this situation, IEA agreed with OPEC opinion that the producers should utilize their spare capacity before resorting to the oil available in the strategic reserves by consumers." (DJ)
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March 11 The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meets in Vienna and decides to maintain crude oil production quotas for its member countries (excluding Iraq) at 24.5 million barrels per day. Most analysts, including EIA, believe that OPEC-10's (excluding Iraq) actual production is higher than the quota amount. (NYT)
eia.doe.gov
So OPEC did agree to a 6.6% increase- -hardly generous.
Here are the monthly numbers for 2003:
2003 January 8,901 21,635 22,481 29,108 77,522
February 8,936 22,087 22,883 30,530 79,292
March 8,928 22,037 22,869 31,170 79,820
April 8,781 21,002 21,956 30,385 78,672
May 8,746 20,922 21,882 30,515 78,642
June 8,677 20,153 21,082 29,811 77,941
July 8,550 20,306 21,209 30,040 78,747
August 8,719 20,785 21,678 30,574 79,298
September 8,971 21,044 21,946 30,933 80,164
October 8,774 21,747 22,643 31,626 81,197
November 8,769 21,850 22,691 31,674 81,561
December 8,830 22,403 23,161 32,307 82,896
2003 Average 8,797 21,328 22,204 30,725 79,650
From here:
eia.doe.gov
Agaim, hardly generous.
Oil prices DID fall when the war started. The average world price per barrel of oil fell from $32 at the end of Feb 2003 to $22 by the beginning of May. It remained below $30 until almost a year after the war began.
Oh, and it was $32 two months before the 2000 election, remained around $31 for a couple of weeks after the election while Gore's lawyers were trying to manufacture Florida votes, and then collapsed to $21 almost immediately upon their failure to litigate their way to the White House.
So Bush's election caused an immediate 32% DROP in the price of oil.
Here's oil prices from Jan 2003 to now.
stockcharts.com[g,a]daclnnay[d20030101,20060121][p]&pref=G
There was a decline from Feb 2004 to May 2003 of about 30%, then a rise that has continued until now. The war began on March 20, 2003.
On 1/12/2003, The Saudi oil minister called for increased OPEC production to compensate for a strike by Venezualan oil workers against President Hugo Chavez.
archives.tcm.ie
A good article on the causes of the price fluctuations (the last half is the most relevant):
meforum.org
Basically, the claim is`OPEC and the Saudis have much less`to do with the prices than commonly thought- -supporting your "Chinese" argument below.
Oil prices Jan 2001-now:
stockcharts.com[l,a]daclnnay[d20010101,20060121][p]&pref=G
And if you weren't such a dope, you'd know that the main reason oil prices have risen so much in the last two years are, first and foremost, a booming economy here and especially in China; and secondarily, supply disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico.
The experts and no one would include AS in those) agree.
"War in the ME" has a marginal effect at most and then only to the degree that Iraq isn't pumping at its full potential. It has no effect on supplies from the rest of the ME except to the extent that a few countries may be pumping MORE than they would otherwise.
Again, agreement.
Besides, as anyone with a rudimentary understanding of markets would know, neither Exxon nor Halliburton, nor any of the other big evil corporations you mention has any control whatsoever over the world price of oil. If you want to find someone who might be able to affect prices, you need to look in the halls of OPEC or perhaps the Kremlin, but even OPEC's ability to artificially inflate prices has been shown to be unsustainable as is usually the case with cartels.
Yup. See above article. And OPEC sure has done a great job post-1973, right?
Oh, and Enron was not an oil company, dope.
Irrelevant. He needs 'em; he gets to use them for his argumment- -if you can call it that.
AS, you are so full of crap your eyes are brown. |
