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Technology Stocks : Alphabet Inc. (Google)

GOOGL 320.01

-1.0%

Nov 26 3:59 PM EST

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To: Jill who wrote (6439)	1/22/2006 2:43:06 PM
From: Dinesh	Read Replies (2) of 15857

Jill The whole basis of conventional number crunching is that the returns are normal, and standard deviation is a useful measure of risk. But GOOG is quite different. If one still insists on betas, it stood at 4 during the last week. That should put it in the category of emerging market debt, and boost the risk premium to truly obscene levels. IOW, a far lower price. So, how do you analyze such a stock? - it's technology and the lock on technology - it's user base, and lock on user base - it's operating universe and changes in the content structure of the web - it's economy of scope (e. of scale has already been proven) Can the technology shift? Can the increasingly non-roman-alphabet nature of content alter it's position? Will this DOJ case not make people a little more wary of what they search, and where. To be sure, it's a wonderfully positioned company. Capable of, for example, oh-so-subtley biasing the media via the g-news. For example, someone on the thread suggested that Google raised this DOJ thing from ashes -- highlighting the fact that MSN and Yahoo complied with the govt. request. Stock returns are certainly nice but clearly nothing like those in 1999 or 2000. And I too have access to Yahoo!Finance. It's hard to also believe every word from the analysts either. You never know how their dice are loaded. Regards -d

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