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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: pogohere who wrote (50889)1/23/2006 9:10:01 AM
From: GST  Read Replies (4) of 110194
 
Inflation = persistent price increase, caused by ? There is no question as to the equation, but there is ample reason to believe that merely looking at the Fed and US money supply will leave you hopelessly uninformed about the prospects for inflation or deflation. Does money supply impact inflation -- of course! Can you understand persistent changes in prices merely by looking at money supply in the US? -- no chance in hell.

Mish lives in the 19th century when the gold standard limited the "creation" of money to the quanitity of gold mined and held above ground. I live in the 21st century where currencies exist and play an important role in a dynamic global economy. Money supply in the US is merely one of many considerations. The fate of the US economy is increasingly beyond the scope of the Fed no matter what it decides to do about money supply. A decrease in US money supply is more likely to cause inflation than deflation because of the impact on our ability to service gigantic foreign debt.
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