I think there will NOT be a switch of computer storage from HDD to flash in '06, '07 or '08.
Sarmad, there already has been a switch from HDD to flash--in iPods. Not in computers yet, of course. I would never claim that flash would take over from HDD in computers--the storage requirements are too high. But there will be a niche market in mobile computers for flash that will be important, IMHO. Samsung will pioneer it, since they are titans in flash and peewees in HDDs (and likely will remain the same in both sectors). It will happen in '07 or '08, depending on how quickly they can get the density up and price down in flash. But the really big market for flash in computers has nothing to do with HDDs--it will be used on the motherboard to achieve instant on. That is where INTC's flash output will go, IMHO, perhaps even all of it (and even more). It will be a gigantic market, will hit in late '06 or by April of '07, at least it will begin there, and will quickly ramp up throughout '07, and the growth rate won't slow until '08 at the earliest, I think. That market and the cell phone market are two of the reasons why I am still holding SNDK and will continue to do so for quite awhile yet, at least the next year, perhaps the next 2 or 3 years, we'll have to see how things go.
BTW, I also have MXO and STX.
Sam |
