Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)

AMAT 261.90

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Dec 26 9:30 AM EST

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (17367)	1/23/2006 1:21:58 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) of 25522

>The "top" has gone the way of the dinosaur.< Cary, do you have any idea how wrong making blanket statements are? There will always be tops and bottoms in the market even if they do not reflect what is happening in a particular industry like semiconductors. Do you watch the yield curve? stockcharts.com The yield curve will probably fully invert if the FED raises rates a couple more times. The economy will most likely tank if short term rates are higher than longer term ones. The market could end up selling off in advance of a probable recession. It won't take bird flu or any act of terrorism just overkill by the FED to tank the market. There is a cyclicality to the market based on presidential cycles: bigpicture.typepad.com The chart suggests that a cyclicality is at play in direct contradiction to the random walk thesis. Given the upward bias of markets over time, regular corrections may be inevitable. What is truly astonishing is the very human tendency to downplay or even ignore these periodic dislocations. bigpicture.typepad.com You know what killed the dinosaurs? An inability to adapt to change. While semiconductors themselves will remain a growth market, indefinitely even, there is no gauarantee that the market will value stocks in this industry as highly as they have done in the past. And there will always be tops and bottoms in the stock market. RtS

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