2006 and 2008 Election Outlooks
mydd.com
by LA Democrat
The following is a personal outlook at how things are looking for the Democrats in the 2006 Senate Races and how things are looking as of now in the 2008 Presidential Election.
ELECTION 2006
DEMOCRATIC PICK-UPS:
PENNSYLVANIA:
I can't see how Casey loses this race AS LONG AS he doesn't do something stupid. Santorum clearly does not reflect the ideology of the entire state of Pennsylvania and he's better off being a lobbyist for the Christian Coalition instead of representing to people of Pennsylvania. Casey has led in ALL the opinion polls since Casey officially announced. Casey will pick up this seat by 10+ points. (+1)
DEMOCRATIC HOLDS:
MARYLAND:
Though Steele is leading in the latest Rasmassuen Reports Poll, look for Congressman Cardin to capture the Democratic nomination and the election. Steele numbers are probably a little inflated because African American candidates tend to poll higher than the actual support. Maryland, a democratic stronghold, will ultimately come to their senses and Bush's numbers will drag down all Republican candidates in Maryland. Maryland will easily elect a democratic senator while bringing in a NEW governor. Look for Cardin to win by a wider than expected margin: 7 to 10%. (0+)
MINNESOTA:
Who's going to come out of the Democratic field? Your guess is as good as mine. Even with that, Democrats should win. Obviously, Minnesota is trending in recent Survey USA polls as extremely anti-Bush. And it showed in 2005 when the Mayor of St. Paul was ousted for endorsing President Bush in 2004. (?)
NEW JERSEY:
While NJ is a fairly democratic state, I believe this will the democrats toughest hold. Tom Kean Jr.'s father is a popular former governor, who recently served in the popular 9-11 Commission. Menendez also has a lower name recognition than Tom Kean Jr., mostly becasue of his father. However, your father can only get you so far in New Jersey. Menendez will hold, but it will be closer than expected: 3-5%. (0+)
Other Holds:
FLORIDA
MICHIGAN
NEBRASKA
WASHINGTON
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(0+)
DEMOCRATIC STEALS (POTENTIALLY):
OHIO:
HACKETT! HACKETT! HACKETT!
In every single opinion poll that I have seen, Hackett has outpolled Brown in a head-to-head matchup aganist Senator DeWine. If Hackett wins the nomination, the Democrats should cruise to victory finally in 2006. Too bad two years too late. However, a Brown nomination could lead the Democrats in a close-race with DeWine favored. Brown is much more liberal than Hackett and from a fairly blue congressional district. Hackett performed well in 2005 race; however, that's not the reason why I think he will win. His stances reflect those of Ohio and a Marine debating nerdy DeWine on Ohio Television will be too much for Senator DeWine to overcome.(+1)
TENNESSEE:
Ford is leading in the latest poll; however, I think he can't win in southern Tennessee aganist a moderate Republican. Lucky for us, the Republicans will pick the ultra-conservative Republican Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker. I think he will win if Corker is nominated. He's moderate and will become the second black member of the United States Senate. (+1)
RHODE ISLAND:
I think Chafee is a lot stronger than many believe. I haven't read much about the race, but for now I think Chafee holds. (0+)
MISSOURI:
McCaskill, though couldn't win the governorship, will win the Senate Race. In 2004, Kerry numbers clearly dragged won McCaskill. She actually ran ahead of Kerry in Missouri. Right now, she leads in the most recent opinion polls. Bush's popularity is key in the race along with Governor Bond's popularity. As their numbers go, so will Senator Talent's numbers. I don't expect their numbers to improve, so Talent's numbers won't improve. McCaskill wins. (+1)
MONTANA:
As long as, Senator Burns doesn't retire. The Democrats will win thanks to Jack Abramoff. (+1)
NEVADA:
SENATOR ENSIGN may be in trouble if the Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman runs. Recently, Reid has said that the mayor is interested. Assuming that he runs, this will be the closest race and most unexpected seat to swing. (+1)
2006 ELECTION RESULTS: DEMOCRATS PICK UP 6 SEATS.
SENATE: DEMOCRATS 51 REPUBLICANS 49
DEMOCRATS WIN CONTROL.
2008 PRESIDENTIAL CONTENDERS:
Diaries :: LA Democrat's diary :: Thu Jan 19th, 2006 at 03:44:55 AM EDT
LA DEMOCRAT'S RANKINGS RIGHT NOW DUE TO RECENT EVENTS:
1. FORMER GOVERNOR MARK WARNER LED THE DEMOCRATS INTO VICTORY IN 2005 BY BASICALLY ELECTING TIM KAINE IN VIRGINIA. WARNER PLAYS WELL IN MANY PARTS OF THE COUNTRY AND HAS A PAC THAT IS RAISING TONS OF CASH. FOR EXAMPLE, IN ONE FUNDRAISING EVENT, WARNER RAISED 2.5 MILLION: VERY PRESIDENTIAL WORTHY. BUT THAT WAS IN VIRGINIA, CAN HE DO IT IN CALIFORNIA?
2. HILLARY RETURNS AFTER A NICE SPEECH IN AN AFRICAN AMERICAN CHURCH. FINALLY, HILLARY CALLS THE REPUBLICANS OUT. SHE FACES THE SAME PROBLEMS AS SOME ON THIS LIST OF WHETHER SHE CAN WIN THE GENERAL. WITH WEAK OPPONENTS RUNNING AGANIST HER IN HER RE-ELECTION BID, HILLARY SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF MONEY TO RUN A FORMIBLE DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL BID. BUT WILL SHE BE TOO MUCH A FAVORITE FOR DEMOCRATS IN IOWA AND NEW HAMPSHIRE? IN THE LAST FEW DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES EXCLUDING GORE, THE EARLY FAVORITE DID NOT WIN. CAN HILLARY OVERCOME THE TREND?
3. FEINGOLD PLAYS WELL TO THE LIBERAL WING OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY. ACTIVISTS LOVE HIM, BUT PUNDITS WONDER IF HE HAS THE ABILITY TO WIN THE GENERAL ELECTION. HOWEVER, RUSS HAS LOST DEFINITE COOL POINTS FOR VOTING TO APPROVE JUDGE ROBERTS. WHAT WILL HE DO WITH ALITO? AN ALITO APPROVE WILL DROP HIM FROM THE LD RANKINGS. HOWEVER, HE RETAINS THE 3RD SPOT FOR STOPPING THE CONGRESS FROM PERMANENTLY EMBEDDING THE PATRIOT ACT INTO THE LIVES OF AMERICANS.
***DROPPING FROM THE RANKINGS: BILL RICHARDSON (BASEBALL DRAFTING SCANDAL) AND EVAN BAYH (LACK OF ANY PUBLIC APPEARANCES) |
