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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 299.81+2.7%Dec 19 4:00 PM EST
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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (28141)1/23/2006 7:46:54 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz  Read Replies (1) of 95617
 
Don, this is my model of what is driving intc price and volume.

1- there were 5 inst with 100m to 300m shares. And an additional 10 with 50-100 m shares, and another 10 with over 25m. That is the supply pool.

2- The gap down on day 1 occurred because there were multiple large sellers and they each wanted to get to the front of the selling line. So they kept under-asking each other's price, until it stabilized at 23.

3- Day 2, 3, and day 4 until 3:00 PM. There was just one large seller at a time bringing in supply and trying to sell as much as possible as fast as possible. I conclude there was only one because the price dropped gradually. If there were multiple sellers, it would have gapped down and stayed flat at the low.

4- the really large seller was done 30 min before the close today. He/she sold the tail end of his inventory real fast. Which is why the price dropped to 21.10. When he was out, price started recovering.

5- there are no really large buyers.

6- Now that the insistent large seller is out, smaller sellers and buyers will pop up at random. Price will be volatile up and down.

7- this will go on for several days. I think this process will be at prices bet 21 and 23.

The proof of this model will be:

1- 2-way volatility.
2- lower daily volume.
3- same directionality as general market.
4- muted reaction to further down-grades.

Sarmad
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