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Strategies & Market Trends : Bonds, Currencies, Commodities and Index Futures
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To: Patrick Slevin who wrote (9225)1/24/2006 6:06:41 PM
From: robert b furman  Read Replies (4) of 12411
 
Hi Chip and Pat,

I'll add my 2 cents.

I think the interest rate differentials between US and Yen,Sterling,Euro will close substantially in the next 12-18 months.

I believe this will crush the dollar and the Asians will be pressed to keep their currencies as low as they artificially are right now - it will become even tighter.

With a cheap dollar our small cap industrial companies, will benefit from an export boom and the trade deficit will become closer -ultimately bringing about a somewhat stronger dollar.

The higher oil goes - the lesser our trade deficit will grow,as we Americans eventually will become efficient minded either by changing preferences or implemanting technology - actually a blend of both will be powerful.

Just as we know energy will never get cheap again,our consumption will plateau and non Opec supply will grow-as so too will Opec Supply.

Then we'll have us an economy that will just plain rock on cheap energy (like a tax cut to the consumer) and rates will go up again to cool things off.

That's when we want to call our capital gains from equities and run to the TIPS.

I can't prove it,but that's my story and I'm sticking to it.

Bob

Rebuttal welcome
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