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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: UncleBigs who wrote (51218)1/24/2006 8:04:02 PM
From: orkrious  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
I can see Centex shares relatively flat over a period of a few years even if home sales drop 25%.


that just shows how two people can look at the same data and come to a different conclusion.

one reason the stock has stayed strong is their buyback. two percent of each day's volume is retired. where is that money coming from? cash/debt that could be used to stay in business.

if they are currently at a multiple to book that's 50% higher than in 02, what happens when their book starts having impaired charges? also, what happens when their margins start shrinking? their inventories growing? their sales declining? their premium is going to head south.

I view CTX as just as good if not better than any other homie and have acted accordingly.
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