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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?
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To: Don Earl who wrote (17329)9/17/1997 12:50:00 PM
From: vinod Khurana   of 42771
 
Hello Don, first Groupwise is shipping. The new release v5.? they introduced recently is also shipping or will within the month. I don't believe for one moment that Groupwise is in the lead over MSFT Exchange and that it is in the position to catch up with Lotus Notes.
Groupwise is a non-money maker for NOVL and a non-strategic product for NOVL. The main drawback is that this software also requires NetWare and will not run of NT or UNIX.

Second, BorderManager in my opinion is not going to do that well if it continues running of the NetWare O/S. NOVL needs to develop the same software (assuming it performs as they say it does) for the NT and UNIX platforms where most companies with web sites have already installed "bordermanager" like software.

NOVL's belief that NetWare 4.x is going to take is a big gamble that in my opinion will lead to the demise of the software company at some point.
If you fail to sell NetWare 4.x big time, then you fail to sell any of their other products big time including BorderManager, Groupwise and, and, and.....and what other products do they have ? Oh Sh*t!! They have nothing else to sell the public.

Doesn't this give you the feeling that putting money in NOVL is as risky as investing in a startup company ? If NOVL is betting on JAVA, then better invest in SUNW than this mother of all no good companies.
SUNW could be the next MSFT if JAVA takes off but does not imply that NOVL will benefit. What if NOVL developed applications fail to sell ? (There are over 300,000 JAVA programmers today and NOVL employs less than 500 of them. Look for some heavy competition in JAVA related apps.)

NOVL is gambling BIG TIME relying on NetWare 4.x for revenue and JAVA
for product development. The writing is clearly on the wall. This company's stock is heading for $15 until the investment community wakes up next year and realizes that NetWare 4.x sales are still dropping and that its JAVA developed apps. are no better than that offered by other developers.

NOVL in other words will no longer be a blue chip company. A startup company with an unpredictable future is where its heading.

V.K
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