Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (17452)	1/25/2006 12:51:22 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) of 25522

Cary, I almost actually agree wholehearted with what you are saying. But regardless of whether the stocks in this industry are treated as cyclical based on past assumptions that may prove to be erroneous or not that does not change the fact that each and every one of us is affected by the buying and selling of institutional investors. So even if institutions are making mistaken assumptions they control the market. How can we benefit? By buying when there is blood on the street as so many here used to do. Yes, of course I always fall back on the cyclical nature of the business cycle. It is one of the major tenets of what I hope will be a very successful investment strategy for me in the future. I have been waiting years now for an opportunity to buy and hold stocks in this industry as cheaply as you and others did in 1996 through 1998 (buying then selling in early 2000). I may not get that chance in the stocks that you favor but there will be plenty of other opportunities in other names. Right now I am following the yield curve closely. It is expected that the FED will hike rates once and probably two more times. If they do then the yield curve will almost certainly invert leading to real fears of an actual recession if not an actual recession. Take some time and look at these charts from Martin Capital Advisors: investorshub.com An inverted yield curve almost always lead to recessions. And although I can argue that many stocks in this industry are undervalued versus other industries the market as a whole remains above historical mean value. So I maintain that a better buying opportunity lies ahead for us. And it may not be all that many more months that I have to wait. RtS

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