Canada-U.S. lumber fight could test new Conservative government, say experts
news.yahoo.com
STEVE MERTL
Wed Jan 25, 5:28 PM ET
VANCOUVER (CP) - Canada's softwood lumber dispute with the United States is one of the biggest issues the incoming Conservative government will face, one likely to test prime minister-designate Stephen Harper's promise of a new level of cordiality in relations with the Americans.
"We will not forget this file because it is very, very important," Ted Menzies, the Conservatives' trade critic in the last Parliament, said Wednesday.
The Tories hope lowering the rhetorical temperature will open a door. But an expert on Canada's longest trade dispute said while respectful dialogue between Harper and President George W. Bush would be welcome, it's unlikely to break the logjam.
"The main blocks are not tensions between the president and the prime minister," said George Hoberg of the University of British Columbia's forestry faculty. "They're blocks about the views and power of the American lumber industry."
Don't expect the new government to come up with a novel solution to settle the issue, added Canadian lumber lobbyist Carl Grenier.
"If there was an easy way to settle this we would have found it a long time ago," said Grenier, executive vice-president of the Montreal-based Free Trade Lumber Council.
Menzies said it's too early to discuss specific steps the new government may take.
"Whoever the new minister is will have to find out what commitments the former minister has made and where he was at on those commitments," Menzies said in an interview from his constituency office in Claresholm, Alta.
He said it's likely the Tories will support Liberal commitments to help Canadian forest companies with their massive legal expenses and keep pursuing trade litigation aimed at cancelling the duties and getting back more than $5 billion collected so far.
"One would assume that it would continue, that we wouldn't stop that because that may be our only avenue to get that money back," said Menzies. "That would be for the new trade minister to decide."
The Liberals on the eve of the election announced a $1.5-billion aid package, including $900 million in loan insurance and direct support for strapped lumber exporters.
In their election platform, the Tories essentially echoed the practical steps the Liberal government took, including demanding the United States live up to its NAFTA obligations, and repeal the illegal Byrd Amendment that funnels tariff money to complaining American industries.
The U.S. Senate voted last month to repeal Byrd but not until Oct. 1, 2007, leaving lumber duties in limbo.
The Tories also promised to help forestry workers and communities and prop up financially troubled companies with loan guarantees secured with the duties held by U.S. Customs, money that Canada says should have been returned last year after a final NAFTA ruling the Americans ignored.
Ottawa reacted by cancelling feelers toward renewed settlement negotiations.
Prime Minister Paul Martin's language grew increasingly bitter to the point during the election campaign that U.S. Ambassador David Wilkins issued a rare public rebuke about perceived America-bashing.
Harper has promised to defend Canada's lumber industry but he has also said he wants to try to move softwood discussions to a higher plane, perhaps through a top-level envoy.
"I think you're going to see a totally different rapport with the Americans, rather than name-calling," said Menzies. "I think it'll be a treatment of mutual respect."
Menzies said the Tories would make a stronger effort to lobby Congress - which has the last word on trade matters - through Canada's allies in the consumer and homebuilding sectors.
But Hoberg said Ottawa's been doing that for years with little success because the American lumber industry has stronger ties to powerful congressional leaders.
"Politics is about the triumph of small, concentrated interests over a larger number of people who have more diffuse interests," said Hoberg.
The softwood dispute will be "an exceptionally important test" for a Harper government's relationship with Bush's administration, said Hoberg.
The president's power to dictate a resolution is limited because he has no direct authority over trade.
"But the president has a significant amount of influence when he sits down and talks to people, including the lumber industry," said Hoberg.
Grenier said there's a feeling the Americans will seek renewed talks as their string of trade-court defeats grows.
But if a settlement is reached on Harper's watch, the departing Liberals want Canadians to remember which government did the heavy lifting. |
