news.yahoo.com
Job growth seen cooling in major metro areas By David Lawder
Wed Jan 25, 7:46 PM ET
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Sunbelt cities of Las Vegas, Orlando and Phoenix will lead the United States in job growth in 2006 as the nation's metropolitan areas slow their economic recovery, according to a new study released on Wednesday.
ADVERTISEMENT
The study by Global Insight Inc. forecast that "gross metro product" (GMP) -- the economic output of the nation's 361 metropolitan statistical areas -- will grow 3.3 percent this year compared to 3.7 percent in 2005.
The forecast is in line with broad expectations for a slight cooling of the U.S. economy and matches Global Insight's forecast 3.3 percent growth in 2006 U.S. gross domestic product, after 3.6 percent growth in 2005.
The study, conducted for the U.S. Conference of Mayors, valued U.S. metropolitan area economic activity at about $10.7 trillion in 2005, compared with $10.1 trillion in 2004.
"Metro economies are getting bigger, and even more important, they are leading U.S. economic growth for the next generation," said James Diffley, Global Insight's senior vice president for regional economies.
Metro areas made up 86.3 percent of U.S. gross domestic product in 2005 and that is projected to grow to 88.5 percent by 2015, and 91 percent by 2030.
The study expects sunbelt cities to continue their strong rate of job creation.
Las Vegas-Paradise, Nevada, increased employment by 7.4 percent in 2005 while its GMP grew 11.0 percent. Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Arizona grew its employment base by 4.1 percent, while its economy expanded 8.6 percent in 2005. Orlando-Kissimmee, Florida employment grew 4.4 percent and its GMP grew 4.4 percent.
Other large metro areas seen with strong jobs growth include Charlotte, North Carolina; Miami, Jacksonville and Tampa, Florida; Salt Lake City, Utah; and Riverside, California.
The study found that by the end of 2005, 244 of the 361 metropolitan areas, or 68 percent, had regained all of their job losses since 2000, just before the most recent recession hit.
But Midwestern manufacturing cities are still suffering, and some may not recoup their job losses by the end of the decade.
Among 18 large areas expected to return to pre-recessionary job totals in 2006 are Atlanta, Dallas-Forth Worth, New York, Seattle, St. Louis and Kansas City.
While cities may be making up job numbers, the positions are not necessarily paying as much as those lost. The study found that the average annual wage of the top 10 job-losing sectors in 2001-2003 was $43,629, but wages averaged only $34,378 in the top 10 job-gaining sectors in the 2003-2005 period.
The biggest metro area job-loss sector was durable goods manufacturing, with an average wage of $46,856 while the biggest gainer in the recovery was administration and support services, with a wage of $26,178.
Although wage growth has been uneven across metro areas, the study showed that overall metropolitan area average wages income rose 5.1 percent in 2005 compared with a 5.3 percent rise in 2004. |
