Bruce,
I watched the presentation and it was no big deal, maybe a bit negative but I wouldn't put too much credence into impressions from cnbc. Hell, even the analysts really have a hard time coming up to speed on Lightbridge's business. The negative part of the presentation was Mark Haynes' last question "if you only had $9mm in revenue last q and most big wireless carriers are already your customers, when will you make big money". Pam gave a good answer but the question is pretty deep considering most people really don't understand how Lightbridge makes money...
75% of Lightbridge's revenue is xaction revenue everytime a carrier signs up a new customer. With PCS in its infancy and Lightbridge having a stranglehold on the market, they will benefit significantly as this market grows. Secondly, as churn increases, Lightbridge xaction revenue grows. This is one of the most beautiful aspects of their business; they can only gain from increased competition. Thirdly, Lightbridge will get other customers. They announced that Ameritech long distance will use their service. I have heard from a good source that others are not announced but will begin using Lightbridge in the next 6 to 9 months.
I am expecting the next 2 qtrs to go very well. The transitional effects of GTE and Ameritech are out of the way. Some big new contract such as ATT Wireless and US Cellular should impact Lightbridge's revenue stream. Additionally, the last qtr is always, by far, the seasonally strongest.
Enough rambling, this is conservatively a $18 - $20 stock by year's end IMO. |
