What are the realistic options available to the US? It could drag Iran to the UN Security Council and, if Russia and China climb onboard, pass a motion for limited economic sanctions. Most likely, the US will not be asking for an Iraq-style oil embargo. Not only would this roil the markets for oil, Iran would respond by ending inspections and accelerating its uranium enrichment activities. If Iran is indeed pursuing a nuclear programme then it will, perhaps sooner rather than later, have its own bomb.
Getting Russia on board ain't going to happen............they are helping Iran with their nuclear ambitions.
One Israeli official quoted in the Newsweek report said that Israel would then be looking towards, "ways to make sure it's not the mullahs who have their finger on the trigger." But the US and Israel have been pursuing that option since 1979.
Very true. It started under Carter and then Reagan accelerated it by taking it several levels higher.
Could it be that Al-Qaeda's gambit is beginning to pay off? It had hoped that the attacks of 11 September would provoke the US into invading the Islamic heartland. That the US did, but the mass upheaval Al-Qaeda had expected in Arab streets did not materialise. Instead, it is Iran that has been the chief beneficiary of the US invasion. It is Iran that now possesses the leverage to oppose US-Israeli aims in the region. Al-Qaeda had not planned on a Shia country leading the Islamic world.
I hardly think that Al Qaida has been left out in the cold.
It is possible that the US, choosing to ignore the colossal risks, may yet launch air attacks against Iran. President Bush could be pushed into this by pressure from messianic Christians, by neoconservatives, by Israelis, or by the illusion that he needs to do something bold and desperate to save his presidency. By refusing to wilt under US-Israeli threats, it appears that the Iranians too may be following Al-Qaeda's logic. We cannot tell if this is what motivates Iran. But that is where matters will go if the US decides to attack or invade Iran.
I don't see Bush backing down for long......that would take too much reasoned, intelligent thinking.
ted |
