Where I sit with GOOG. I am down to a 1/3 core long position, with no trading calls. My gut feeling is screaming at me to be out of the stock for earnings and I have learned to rely on my gut feelings when trading. All signs point to a great quarter for GOOG but there is also present, tremendous expectation built in. To me, the downside risk is much greater if they disappoint in ANY way than is the upside potential AH when eps is given.
If they blow away number, and I say this again, I will buy as early as I can AH but feel that I will be able to get in within 20 points of close, maybe 25. If they miss or disappoint, the fun begins with the push/pull war between valuation and growth concerns. My feeling is that a pullback on the disappoint could immediately shave off 30+ points and continued pressure Wed.
If they blow away estimates, the target numbers are in play again and the only thing lost is the spike AH. Of course, those that take calls into the release stand to win or lose big and I just can't make that gamble this time ...... too much riding on this release. I will leave my core long in play because of the potential and if it tanks, it is not a big deal. Either way, GOOG will be VERY tradeable AH and beyond so it is best, for me, to keep most of the powder dry to take advantage of it.
Tj |
