CORT :CORT 3Q Update
2005-11-09 05:55 (New York)
Piper Jaffray & Co. Earnings Update
November 9, 2005
(CORT - $4.61)
Market Perform Volatility: Medium
CORT 3Q Update
Thomas Wei, Senior Research Analyst Reason for Report:
212 284-9305, thomas.a.wei@pjc.com
Rachel L. McMinn, Ph.D., Research
Analyst
415 277-1549, rachel.l.mcminn@pjc.com
Gur A. Roshwalb, M.D., Research
Analyst
212-284-9314, gur.a.roshwalb@pjc.com
KEY POINTS:
Changes To Estimates. We are adjusting our model to account for updated 2005
financial guidance. Due to slower-than-expected enrollment in the U.S. Phase
III trials of Corlux in psychotic major depression, CORT has reduced its 2005
cash burn guidance from $20m-$25m to $17m-$20m. We are adjusting our 2005 EPS
from ($1.00) to ($0.91).
From To Price: $4.61
Changes (Previous) (Current)
52 Week High: $7.00
Rating -- MarketPerform
52 Week Low: $3.41
Price Tgt -- $6.00
Price Target: $6.00
FY06E Rev -- $0.0 (mil)
FY07E Rev -- $2.0
Shares Out (mil): 22.6
(mil)
Market Cap. (mil): $104.2
FY06E EPS -- ($1.54)
Avg Daily Vol (000): 52
FY07E EPS -- ($1.94)
Book Value/Share: $1.47
Cash Per Share: $1.40
Debt to Total Capital: 0%
Div (ann): $0.00
Est LT EPS Growth: NM
P/E to LT EPS Growth (FY06): NA
Est Next Rep Date: 03/15/2006
Fiscal Year End: Dec
INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION:
We believe that the Phase III program for Corlux is high-risk, high-reward
and that we will likely need to wait for positive Phase III data prior to
significant share appreciation.
RISKS TO ACHIEVEMENT OF TARGET PRICE:
Risks include but are not limited to: 1) significant changes to the trial
design following the SPA process with the FDA; 2) slower-than-expected rates
of enrollment in the new Phase III trials of Corlux; 3) negative data from
either Phase III trial of Corlux; and 4) financing risk prior to
profitability.
COMPANY DESCRIPTION:
Corcept Therapeutics Incorporated is developing Corlux for psychotic major
depression and other psychiatric disorders.
Important Research Disclosures
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Analyst Certification - Thomas Wei, Senior Research Analyst
The views expressed in this report, including the Key Points and Risk
sections in particular, accurately reflect my.. |
