Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 322.51

+6.1%

Feb 6 9:30 AM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (8003)	9/17/1997 4:20:00 PM
From: Jeff Maresh	of 70976

Hi Gottfried - I tend to agree with the earnings estimates but I don't agree with a PE of 45 over the long haul. Some stocks like MSFT, CSCO, and INTC have gotten away with high PSRs for quite awhile but if one of these high-fliers falls, I think it's going to hit all the high PSR tech stocks pretty hard. AMAT is about 30-40% above its highest previous PSR which was achieved as a smaller company during the last cycle. If AMAT follows Fisher's reasoning, it may go sideways until the PSR drops to a more reasonable level. In rational markets, stocks have done this. In irrational markets, they just keep going higher and you wind up with a MSFT. And I think MSFT is going to fall hard perhaps sooner than later. I have been opining this for some time now and their potential problems hit the cover of Barrons this week. Regards Jeff

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