Hi Seeker -
Great question : What's different about Iran ?
They are precieved as very aggressive and not constrained.
They seem to really believe in the 70 virgins for martyrs.
Iran has recently pushing a very hard "exterminate Israel" line. It doesn't take much reading between to see that in their view "Zionist" is just a code for "all infidels" and after Israel they want to hit France, UK, and everybody else.
Some of the Iranian leaders are serious about "Death to America"
I don't see Chirac as an alarmist or a neocon.
Even Russia is concerned about Iran.
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North Korea is a bit crazy, but current assesments are that most of it is an act. Also unlikely they believe in life after death. The number of nuclear devices they can make will be limited, and their weapon delivery capability is not great.
India is not the most aggresive power in the world. This might change, however.
Pakistan is worrying, but seemed to want a deterent to India. Unlikely to attack India first, since once the nukes are gone, India can still mess up Pakistan very badly.
India and Pakistan did get close to war in about 2002, both were detered by some pointed threats from various major powers.
Israel is pretty survival/deterrent oriented - we don't see them using their nuclear capability to grab the Suez Canal.
For the rest of the nuclear powers, none of them wants to use nukes or see them used. That would be the US, UK, Russia, France, and China. Some nations on the threshold of nuclear capability - like Japan - do not want to cross that threshold.
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Also, this post (a bit left wing) makes the point that the bulk of Iran's currently producing oil is near the Iraq border, and might be grabbed.
Message 22126394
I think the "no action until at least March" means don't disrupt anything until winter ends.
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