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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: Road Walker who wrote (271459)2/3/2006 5:45:14 AM
From: tejek  Read Replies (1) of 1575184
 
re: Actually, even if the US came up with the most stringent conservation plan in its history, oil prices would not change much.

I disagree completely. Remember it's a commodity market trading on the knifes edge. Right now the assumption is that with the Bush admin, and with the 25% of world consumption, the burn is guaranteed to continue to rise. It's priced into the market.

The current reason why oil is at a premium starts with the fact that supply and demand are in almost perfect equilibrium. The risk premium is added because of geopolitical events that are or could take place in oil producing nations. I don't think announcing a conservation program in the US would have much impact because of the length of time it would take to get such a program in place and effective. Long term, I think it would have impact but not immediately.


A REAL effective conservation (efficiency) program in the US would drop oil prices 20% in a week; 40-50% in a year. When you are dealing with a commodity at the margin, the difference between oversupply and under supply makes a world of difference.

You certainly don't have to worry about you energy investments right now... but you ought to pay attention in case the wind direction changes.

I am not worried about my oil investments. I would shift my money into other growth companies that I already have in my portfolio.

ted
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