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Strategies & Market Trends : Bonds, Currencies, Commodities and Index Futures

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To: Walkbarr who wrote (9498)	2/6/2006 6:44:27 PM
From: Patrick Slevin	Read Replies (2) of 12411

I recall the day because, a pattern trader friend sent me a fax in July, 1997, that his cycle work showed the next Black October as falling on either October 20 or October 27. When it happened, I had been short from the previous Thursday. I still have the fax taped to the wall. Also, I posted it here on SI in July or August of that year. Prior to the drop. That was one cool call that dude made. Anyway, the next day saw the market sell off lower, then explode upward about 135 points as I recall. --------- Why? In the aftermath it turned out that Victor Nederhoffer, I think it was, went in on Friday buying SP because he wanted to make a killing. The Market made a killing on Vic. By Monday the 27th Vic was bankrupt. As I recall the approximate numbers were that he had a $450 million hedge fund and lost $650 million between Friday and Monday. The market continued down on Tuesday until Refco finally closed out the last of his positions. Once Refco left the floor, traders catapulted the SP back and higher than it was on the prior Thursday. ----------------- I have day-by-day market data that I kept updated for years going back to around 1930. I stopped doing it around 2000 or so. I'll check that date as well as other dates for 10% moves. ----- Wish I knew where I posted that prediction. Love to find that again.

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